Research

Working Papers

• The Effects of U.S. Public R&D on Global Growth
  with Gustavo De Souza, Andrew Fieldhouse, Ishan Nath and Valerie Ramey · August 2026
• Work from Home and Migration
  with Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Hannah Rubinton · July 2026
• Weak Instrument Bias in Impulse Response Estimators
  with Daniel J. Lewis · first draft, January 2026
• Dynamic Identification Using System Projections and Instrumental Variables
  with Daniel Lewis · R&R at Quantitative Economics · updated July 2024Online appendix
• Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?
  with Daniel Lewis and Christos Makridis · updated January 12, 2020
• Outsourcing, Markups and the Labor Share
  with Marc Giannoni · March 20, 2019

Published/Forthcoming

• The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence From U.S. Appropriations Shocks
  with Andrew Fieldhouse · forthcoming at American Economic Review · February 2026Dallas Fed Working Paper 2305 · Online appendix · Data
  • Companion paper: A Narrative Analysis of Federal Appropriations for Research and Development (December 2023), with Andrew Fieldhouse · Dallas Fed Working Paper 2316
• The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
  with A. Cheremukhin, S. Hur, R. Mau, A. Richter, X. Zhou · NBER Macroeconomics Annual 41, 2026Dallas Fed Working Paper 2407
• The Social Returns to Public R&D
  with Andrew Fieldhouse · NBER Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy 5, 2026Dallas Fed Working Paper 2519
• A Robust Test For Weak Instruments for 2SLS with Multiple Endogenous Regressors
  with Daniel Lewis · Review of Economic Studies 93 (5), October 2026, 3303–3336Dallas Fed Working Paper 2208 · Matlab programs · Online appendix
  • Companion Stata package: GWEAKIVTEST: Stata Module Providing Robust Test for Weak Instruments for 2SLS with Multiple Endogenous Regressors (2026), with Daniel J. Lewis and Jonathan Shaw
• Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak
  with Alexander Bick and Adam Blandin · American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 15 (4), October 2023Dallas Fed Working Paper 2017 · Online appendix · RPS micro data
• High Frequency Data and a Weekly Economic Index During the Pandemic
  with Daniel Lewis, Jim Stock, and Mihir Trivedi · American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 111, May 2021
• Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index
  with Daniel Lewis, Jim Stock, and Mihir Trivedi · Journal of Applied Econometrics 37 (4), August 2021Dallas Fed Working Paper 2011 · Replication programs · Weekly Economic Index (updated Thursdays, 10.30am CT) · 2024 Richard Stone Prize in Applied Econometrics
  • The working paper circulated under the earlier title U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
• State-Level Implications of Federal Tax Policies: Comment
  by Chang Liu and Noah Williams · Journal of Monetary Economics 105, August 2019
• The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford
  with Morten Ravn · American Economic Review 109 (7), July 2019, 2679–2691Dallas Fed Working Paper 1805 · Matlab programs
• Comment on Macroeconomic Effects of the 2017 Tax Reform
  by Robert J. Barro and Jason Furman · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2018Supplemental materials: The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act · Matlab programs
• Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence
  with Jose Montiel-Olea · Quarterly Journal of Economics 133 (4), November 2018NBER Working Paper 19171 · Data · Matlab programs · Matlab files to construct AMTR series
• The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy
  with Andrew Fieldhouse and Morten Ravn · Quarterly Journal of Economics 133 (3), August 2018NBER Working Paper 23154 · Appendices · Data · Matlab programs
  • Companion paper: A Narrative Analysis of Mortgage Asset Purchases by Federal Agencies (updated July 2017), with Andrew Fieldhouse · NBER Working Paper 23165
• Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap
  with Morten Ravn · Review of Economic Studies 81 (4), 2014CEPR Discussion Paper 7931 · Matlab programs
• A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers
  with Morten Ravn · Journal of Monetary Economics 68, 2014CEPR Discussion Paper 8973 · Data · Matlab programs · Web appendix
• The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States
  with Morten Ravn · American Economic Review 103 (4), June 2013Web appendix · Matlab programs
• Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks
  with Morten Ravn · American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4 (2), May 2012NBER Working Paper 16289
• Leverage and the Financial Accelerator in a Liquidity Trap
  with Morten Ravn · American Economic Review P&P 101 (3), May 2011
• Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks
  with Morten Ravn · NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, 2011Data
• The Research Agenda: Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn on Fiscal Policy, Anticipation Effects, Expectations and Crisis
  Economic Dynamics Newsletter 12 (2), April 2011
• Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks
  with Morten Ravn · Review of Economic Dynamics 14 (1), January 2011CEPR Discussion Paper 7505 · Web appendix · Data and Matlab programs
• Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: a Structural VAR Approach
  with Morten Ravn · The Economic Journal 120 (544), May 2010CEPR Discussion Paper 7423 · Web appendix
• Business Cycle Analysis and VARMA Models
  with Christian Kascha · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 33 (2), February 2009Norges Bank Working Paper 2008/5 · Programs
• Deposit Rate Ceilings and Monetary Transmission in the US
  Journal of Monetary Economics 55 (7), October 2008Data

Shelved working papers:

• Distributional Considerations for Monetary Policy Strategy
  with Laura Feiveson, Nils Goernemann, Julie Hotchkiss, and Jae Sim · FEDS Working Paper 2020-073, August 2020Framework review background memo
• The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
  Dallas Fed Working Paper 1803, March 23, 2018Matlab programs · Table II (May 2019 update)
• Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
  with Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Christoffer Koch, Evan Koenig, Anthony Murphy and Kei-Mu Yi · Dallas Fed Working Paper 2014, updated June 2020Mobility and Engagement Index data
• Credit Channels in a Liquidity Trap
  with Morten Ravn · March 2011 version
• Regime Switching Interest Rates and Fluctuations in Emerging Markets
  with Bertrand Gruss · December 2010 versionMatlab programs · Data
• The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops
  CAE Working Paper 07-10

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