Research

Working Papers

• A Robust Test For Weak Instruments with Multiple Endogenous Regressors (December 2022), with Daniel Lewis, matlab programs, Online Appendix
• Dynamic Identification Using System Projections and Instrumental Variables (January 2023), with Daniel Lewis, Online Appendix
• Distributional Considerations for Monetary Policy Strategy, (August 2020, framework review background memo, FEDS WP No 2020-073), with Laura Feiveson, Nils Goernemann, Julie Hotchkiss, and Jae Sim
• Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?  (updated January 12, 2020), with Daniel Lewis and Christos Makridis
• Outsourcing, Markups and the Labor Share (March 20, 2019), joint with Marc Giannoni

Published/Forthcoming

• Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak (October, 2022), with Alexander Bick and Adam Blandin. Accepted at AEJ Macro
  Online Appendix, Download RPS Micro Data
• High Frequency Data and a Weekly Economic Index During the Pandemic, with Daniel Lewis, Jim Stock and Mihir Trivedi, American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 111 (May 2021)
• Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index (2021), with Daniel Lewis, Jim Stock and Mihir Trivedi, Journal of Applied Econometrics 37 (4), replication programs
  (Older version: U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak )
  Weekly Economic Index (updated every Thursday at 10.30AM CT)
• State-Level Implications of Federal Tax Policies: Comment, by Chang Liu and Noah Williams, Journal of Monetary Economics 105 (August 2019)
• The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford (February 2019), joint with Morten Ravn, American Economic Review 109 (July 2019), Matlab Programs
  Also available as Dallas Fed Working Paper 1805
• Comment on Macroeconomic Effects of the 2017 Tax Reform, by Robert J. Barro and Jason Furman, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2018
  Supplemental materials: The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act , Matlab Programs
• Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence, joint with Jose Montiel-Olea. Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 133 (4), November 2018
  Also available as NBER Working Paper 19171. Data, Matlab programs, Matlab files to construct AMTR series  
• The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy, with Andrew Fieldhouse and Morten Ravn,  Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 133 (3), August 2018
  Appendices, Data, Matlab programs, Also available as NBER Working Paper 23154.  Companion paper:  A Narrative Analysis of Mortgage Asset Purchases by Federal Agencies (updated July 2017), joint with Andrew Fieldhouse.
  Also available as NBER Working Paper 23165.
• Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap, with Morten Ravn, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 81 (4) , 2014, Matlab Programs. 
• A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers , with Morten Ravn, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol 68, 2014, Data, Matlab Programs, Web Appendix. 
• The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States, with Morten Ravn, American Economic Review, Vol. 103 (4) June 2013, Web Appendix, Matlab Programs.
• Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks. , joint with Morten Ravn, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy Vol. 4:2, May 2012, Earlier versions available as NBER Working Paper 16289, CEPR Discussion Paper 7370, NBB Working Paper 181.
• Leverage and the Financial Accelerator in a Liquidity Trap, joint with Morten Ravn, American Economic Review P&P, Vol. 101:3, May 2011. 
• Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks 2011, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, joint with Morten Ravn, Data  
•  The Research Agenda: Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn on Fiscal Policy, Anticipation Effects, Expectations and Crisis, Economic Dynamics Newsletter 12:2, April 2011.
• Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks, joint with Morten Ravn, Review of Economic Dynamics, Volume 14:1, January 2011, Web Appendix,  Data and Matlab Programs.
• Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: a Structural VAR Approach, with Morten Ravn, The Economic Journal, Volume 120:544; May 2010, Web Appendix, also available as CEPR Discussion Paper 7423.
• Business Cycle Analysis and VARMA Models, joint with Christian Kascha, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 33:2; February 2009 Programs, Also available as Bank of Norway Working Paper 2008/5.
• Deposit Rate Ceilings and Monetary Transmission in the US, Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 55:7; October 2008, Data.

Shelved working papers:

• The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (March 23, 2018), Dallas Fed Working Paper 1803, Matlab Programs, Table II (May 2019 update)
• Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak (updated June 2020), with Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Christoffer Koch, Evan Koenig, Anthony Murphy and Kei-Mu Yi, Dallas Fed Working Paper 2014
  Mobility and Engagement Index Data
• Credit Channels in a Liquidity Trap  (March 2011 version), joint with Morten Ravn, also available as CEPR Discussion Paper 8332.
• Regime Switching Interest Rates and Fluctuations in Emerging Markets (December 2010 version), joint with Bertrand Gruss, Matlab programs, Data.
• The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops  (CAE working paper #07-10).

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